LAGOS, NIGERIA — Wheat consumption in Nigeria is projected to decrease to 4.5 million tonnes in marketing year 2023-24, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

If realized, consumption would be 250,000 tonnes less than 2022-23 and 500,000 tonnes under the USDA’s official 2023-24 forecast of 5 million tonnes. Wheat imports for 2023-24 are forecasted at 4.8 million tonnes, 9% under the USDA’s official forecast of 5.3 million tonnes but up slightly from 4.78 million tonnes estimated for the previous year.

“Consumption and imports are forecasted to decrease due to a weakening naira raising the cost of imported wheat, the ending of the national fuel subsidy that has eroded consumer purchasing power, and soft consumer demand for wheat-based products in favor of lower-cost alternatives,” FAS Post Lagos said.

Wheat production for Nigeria, a nation of 213 million people with Africa’s largest economy, is projected to be 110,000 tonnes from a harvested area of 100,000 hectares.

Corn production in 2023-24 is expected to decrease 7.3% to 11.8 million tonnes compared to 2022-23, while corn consumption drops 4.6% to 12.3 million tonnes. Ongoing insecurity and violence in northern producing regions and high costs are impacting production, while consumption is impacted by food and beverage manufacturing slowdowns, decreasing sales due to the Nigeria-Niger border closure, and soft consumer demand.

Rice consumption is seen increasing about 4% to 7.8 million tonnes from the 2022-23 estimate of 7.5 million tonnes, due to low- or no-cost government rice provisions to food insecure populations and an influx of unofficial rice imports.