NEW DELHI, INDIA — After posting strong production numbers for soybeans and rapeseed in the soon to be completed 2022-23 marketing year, India is expected to see a decline in output in the coming season due to the El Niño weather pattern that’s projected to settle into the region in late 2023, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS estimates soybean production at 12.4 million tonnes for the current marketing year that ends on Sept. 30, while it pegs rapeseed output at 11.8 million tonnes, which would both be records. 

“The slightly higher estimate is attributed to the monsoon showers in Madhya, Pradesh and Maharashtra, which are the major soybean growing states in India,” the FAS said. “The late onset of the monsoon by more than a week slowed down the soybean planting process initially in both of the states, but rainfall from early July helped to pick up the planting rapidly.”

India is projected to see soybean and rapeseed production decline to 11.9 million tonnes and 11.2 million tonnes, respectively in 2023-24, the report said.

The report also noted that India’s export of soybean meal is estimated to nearly double from 940,000 last year to 1.8 million tonnes in 2022-23. 

“More competitive pricing and sufficient domestic soybean supplies for crushing have led to a stronger export demand from regional markets,” the FAS said.

Rapeseed meal exports are seen rising by 4% year-on-year to 1.65 million tonnes, the FAS said.