BEIJING, CHINA — China is expected to import a record volume of soybeans in 2022-23, but an increase in domestic production is expected to dampen totals in the 2023-24 marketing year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Soybean imports are estimated at 101 million tonnes due to relatively lower prices and the revival in demand for soybean meal and vegetable oil following the lifting of COVID restrictions. The recovery in imports was further supported by ample supply from Brazil, the FAS said.

Imports in the first 10 months of 2022-23 have surged to 84.3 million tonnes, a 10% increase compared to the previous year.

Expansion of domestic soybean production and the higher 2022-23 imports are expected to weigh on soybean import growth.

“The expansion of domestic soybean production is likely to channel a portion of the crop into the crushing industry in the northeastern regions, thereby directly competing with imported soybeans,” the FAS said.

Several forecasts are calling for a slight decline in imports for 2023-24 to 98.5 million tonnes.

Soybean production in 2023-24 is estimated at 19.7 million tonnes, a small decline from previous estimates due to flooding and other impacts related to heavy rain.

Total oilseed crush in 2023-24 is estimated at 134 million tonnes, an increase from the 132.9 million tonnes estimated in 2022-23. Growth is driven by gradual recovery of demand for protein meals in the feed sector.

A moderate resurgence in vegetable oil demand and an increased usage of soybean for food purposes also will contribute to greater oilseed demand, the FAS said.