BEIJING, CHINA — China is the world’s leading wheat producer, but poor weather in the spring as the growing season neared its end impacted quality and came as a painful reminder of the unpredictability of food production. The Chinese government is moving to ensure food security with a new law designed to ensure self-sufficiency in major agricultural commodities. 

In its latest Grain Market Report, published June 29, the International Grains Council (IGC) put China’s wheat production in 2023-24 at 139 million tonnes, a 1% year-on-year increase, keeping China as the world’s biggest wheat producer. 

“China’s winter wheat harvest neared completion by late June, similar to normal, with fieldwork accelerating under recent warmer, drier weather,” the IGC said. “While earlier excessive rains are expected to have a detrimental impact on quality in some areas, most notably in Henan province, yield assessments are unchanged.”

It also forecasts an increase in Chinese feed use of wheat to 32 million tonnes, up from the previous year’s 27 million, as “private estimates suggest that a significant portion of 2023-24 production could be unfit for food use due to rain-induced quality issues, with the inferior quality supplies reportedly attractively priced against alternatives, including maize.”  

Food security is included as an aim of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25), with a target to produce 650 million tonnes of grain during the period. 

“Reported crop quality issues are expected to underpin China’s demand for imported milling grade supplies, with purchases tentatively pegged at 12 million tonnes, 4.5 million higher month on month but 2 million below the prior year’s record forecast,” it also said.

In a July 5 update, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché reported that the wheat harvest concluded nationwide in late June.

“On a national scale, production is expected to be comparable to last year despite recent poor weather,” the report said. “The extent of the weather impact on crops in the regions most affected is not yet measurable.”

From May 25-30, Henan, China’s top wheat-producing province, experienced six days of continuous heavy rainfall immediately preceding harvest, the USDA explained. The result was “a large area of lodging, water logging, wheat sprouting, blight and mold.” 

“Provincial authorities asked farms to expedite harvest starting from May 23, but dampened soil prevented combine work and a shortage of drying spaces and facilities limited post-rain remedies,” the USDA said. “Henan provincial authorities encouraged feed mills and ethanol producers to buy sprouted wheat. Continuous rains in late May and early June impacted more than 30% of the new crop wheat in parts of other provinces with major production.” 

The attaché forecast that 2023-24 consumption of wheat as feed will return to 2021-22 levels “due to the above-mentioned quality issues.” The report also predicted that 2023-24 wheat consumption as a staple food will be weaker than 2022-23 “as the end of COVID controls revives the catering industry, which features more meat and vegetable consumption than staple food consumption.”

“Industrial use is forecast to increase due to larger issues with mold and sprouted wheat,” the report said.

Food security is included as an aim of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25), with a target to produce 650 million tonnes of grain during the period. 

“China’s food production has improved steadily. Last year, we saw the 17th consecutive bumper harvest,” China Daily quoted Liang Yan, deputy head of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, as saying, in an article on April 5. 

The plan refers to “comprehensive food production capacity,” and includes “specific arrangements for the implementation of a food security strategy, including improving the whole industrial chain for grains, from production to purchase, storage, processing and sale,” it said, also emphasizing that China will draft food security laws.

“The supply of food in the Chinese market is generally good and grain reserves remain at a relatively high level,” Liang said. “Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the food market and supply in China remained stable.” 

Per capita grains stocks were at 470 kilograms, compared with an international average of 400 kilograms. 

“But still, we should keep alert on food security as the current international situation is undergoing extensive and profound changes,” Liang added. 

She also noted global limits on farmland and water and the food supply uncertainties created by natural disasters and stressed the importance of food safety. 

“We should improve related facilities and give industrial support a stronger role to play to further guarantee the country’s food security, aiming for green and sustainable development of the whole food production chain,” she said.

Rural modernization plan 

China’s State Council issued a circular on Feb. 11, 2022, announcing a plan to “advance agricultural and rural modernization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025).” 

The aim is that by 2025, supply of grain and other staple agricultural products will be guaranteed, with quality, efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture industry enhanced, and new progress made in rural infrastructure construction.

“With better rural ecology environment and higher income of rural residents, anti-poverty achievements will be consolidated and expanded by 2025,” it said. “The country is expected to make decisive progress in comprehensive rural revitalization, and generally achieve agricultural and rural modernization by 2035, according to the plan.

“The plan has specified tasks to stabilize grain acreage, optimize structure of grain species, beef up farmland protection to guard the red line of 1.8 billion mu (120 million hectares) of arable land and promote high-standard farmland construction.” 

The aim is that by 2025, supply of grain and other staple agricultural products will be guaranteed, with quality, efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture industry enhanced, and new progress made in rural infrastructure construction.

China plans to “enhance construction of functional areas for grain production, protect zones for important agricultural products, and strengthen areas for special agricultural products.” The plan also calls for disaster prevention and relief, market adjustment for important agricultural products to be strengthened with stabilized supply chains of international agricultural products to enhance anti-risk ability of the sector.

Plans include to “strengthen scientific and technological support for modern agriculture, boost development of seed industry, and improve abilities for agricultural equipment research and application.” The plan also outlines establishment of a modern rural industry system to keep the main body of industrial chains in county regions to create more jobs and benefits for farmers.

The government also aims to improve transport, services and the environment in rural areas, pushing forward the “transformation of rural production and living into a green and low-carbon style.” 

At the same time, it will “increase resource utilization efficiency, work for cleaner environment at production places, stable ecological system and harmonious co-existence between man and nature.” The plan also stresses the need for an “effective connection between consolidation of poverty eradication and rural revitalization, and integrated urban-rural development.”

The Xinhua news agency quoted Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian as saying at a press conference that “China’s grain security is fully guaranteed,” with sufficient grain inventories and sound production and sales. 

Tang said the mechanization rate of farming and harvesting had reached 71% while the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides applied to crops had fallen for four consecutive years. Even so, supply and demand for grain were in a “tight balance,” the minister said, urging improved breeding, branding and standardization of agricultural production to make a broader range of quality products available to consumers.

Trade war exposes vulnerabilities

Wendong Zhang, assistant professor at Cornell University’s Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, explained to World Grain that “this plan will help stabilize and boost the production of grains, especially those food crops.”

“There are efforts to de-risk and maintain the acres of prime farmland for food security purposes,” he said. “This is in part responding to the vulnerabilities exposed in the US-China trade war. There are also clearly efforts outlined to improve the seed technology through more investments in genome editing capabilities and enhancing national and regional breeding capacity for crops and livestock. There is also a broader concept emerging to consider agri-food system as a whole as opposed to just focusing on the grains.”

Consumption, he suggested, is being driven more by income trends, with Chinese consumers eating more meat and consumer-oriented products such as fresh fruits and vegetables, cheese and wine, and caring more about food safety attributes such as organic and fewer additives. 

“The plan does not change the consumption pattern much,” Dr. Zhang said. “In addition to food grains, there are efforts to boost domestic production of higher-quality rice and wheat products and corn for silage, which could help with processing and feed needs.”

He pointed to increasing consolidation in the Chinese food processing sector, pointing out that “for example, the top 10 publicly listed hog firms increased their share of total hogs slaughtered from 7% in 2017 before African swine fever to more than 17% in 2021,” while firms in the sector also are becoming increasingly vertically integrated. 

“Long-term China wants to diversify the importer portfolio, especially away from the US,” the Chinese expert added. “That said, China has super high self-sufficiency goals for food grains like rice and wheat for which they want to maintain a greater than 97% self-sufficiency rate.

“So, I don’t think rice and wheat imports will be very significant. China did increase significantly the imports of feed grains from the central Asian countries and others along the Belt and Road initiative, and the recently fully implemented RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade agreement involving Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) will help this diversification effort, especially on specialty rice imports.”

Food security law

The Chinese government also has proposed a new law on guaranteeing food security. According to an article published by the National People’s Congress on the WeChat social media site on June 28, the General Secretary Xi Jinping has “pointed out that only by firmly ensuring food security can we secure the initiative for national rejuvenation.”

The draft of the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Ensuring Food Security, designed “to guarantee effective food supply, ensure national food security, and enhance the ability to prevent and defend against food security risks,” according to writer Gong Yixi from the People’s Congress Multimedia, “was submitted for deliberation at the third session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress on June 26.” 

The law includes provisions on protecting farmland, food production, food reserves, food circulation, food processing, food emergencies, food conservation, supervision and management. It starts with an introduction pointing out that China’s current overall food supply situation is good, “with consecutive years of abundant harvests, sufficient stockpiles, and ample market supply,” according to the WeChat article, but also noting that demand for food is increasing and there are challenges to food security, citing “a shortage of arable land, overall low quality of land, increased difficulty in ensuring stable production and increased output of food, the need to improve the reserve system, the need to enhance the circulation system, the need to upgrade processing capabilities, the need to strengthen emergency preparedness, and the need to regulate conservation and reduction of food waste,” as examples.

The draft, “comprehensively implements the national food security strategy, and focuses on the national situation and food situation in China, aiming to construct a comprehensive and sound system for ensuring food security,” it said. “It also adopts a problem-oriented approach to solidify the foundation of food security from all aspects, effectively enhancing the ability to prevent and defend against food security risks and ensure that the Chinese people firmly hold their rice bowls in their own hands.”

The draft law also calls for the setting up of a “national agricultural genetic resources bank and the establishment of a seed reserve system,” the article said. “It encourages the promotion and popularization of mechanized technology in food production, strengthens the construction of the agricultural technology extension system, and enhances the capacity for disaster prevention, reduction, and relief in food production.” 

It also calls for the establishment of a government food reserve system.