LONDON, ENGLAND — Turkey is expected to ship a record 5.4 million tonnes of flour (wheat equivalent) in the 2023-24 marketing year, according to the latest quarterly update from the International Grains Council (IGC).

Perennially the world’s largest flour exporter, Turkey is expected to increase imports by 600,000 tonnes compared to 2022-23.

“With likely slower demand from Iraq, a key buyer of Turkish flour, deliveries are expected to be partly shifted to other destinations in Near East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,” the IGC said. “Increased exports by Turkey are set to compensate for smaller projected dispatches by other significant suppliers, notably Kazakhstan and India.”

Kazakhstan is forecast to ship 2.6 million tonnes in the coming year, down from 2.9 million tonnes, and India’s delivery total is seen declining by 100,000 tonnes, to 200,000, the IGC said.

The IGC, in its latest quarterly update, trimmed its forecast for total global wheat flour trade in 2023-24 to 14.1 million tonnes, which would match the previous year’s total. If realized, the amount traded would fall below the five-year average and be 3.5 million tonnes lower than the record achieved during 2016-17.

The IGC update did not factor in the latest developments in the Black Sea region where Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and reinstated its blockade of Ukraine’s southern ports.

Flour imports by the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union) are expected to drop markedly from the previous season, led by Uzbekistan, where arrivals are forecast to be the smallest in two decades amid an above-average wheat crop and continued expansion in the milling sector. The IGC sees Uzbekistan importing 400,000 tonnes of flour in 2023-24, compared to an estimated 600,000 tonnes last year.

Deliveries to Far East Asia, the world’s largest wheat flour importing region, are forecast to decline slightly from 4.1 million tonnes to 4 million, largely reflecting the expected slowdown in purchases by Afghanistan, on improved local wheat availabilities, and likely reduced deliveries from Kazakhstan, its main supplier. Even with the reduction in imports, Afghanistan is forecast to be the world’s leading flour importer in the 2023-24 season at 2.35 million tonnes, according to the IGC.

Near East Asia, another leading flour importing region, is expected to see deliveries decline slightly with smaller imports from Iran offsetting brisker purchases by Syria and Yemen. Iraqi imports are forecast to decline to 1.6 million tonnes in 2023-24, about 400,000 tonnes less than the previous year and the lowest total since 2014-15, the IGC said. The IGC cited “continued government efforts to expand local milling operations,” as one of the reasons for the expected decline.

Amid potentially more affordable prices, an increase in flour imports is expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where deliveries are forecast to increase by 200,000 tonnes, to 1.9 million. However, the IGC noted that “much would hinge on supplies from Egypt, which typically accounts for a significant portion of deliveries, notably to Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan.”