CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — Following a record setting winter crop in 2022-23, Australia expects a strong but more subdued grain crop in 2023-24, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The prospect of an El Niño, if realized would dampen production expectations.

Wheat production is forecast at 29 million tonnes, down by more than one quarter from the estimated record production of 39.7 million tonnes in 2022-23, but still above the long-term average.

Exports are forecast to fall to 21 million tonnes from an estimated record of 31 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Barley production is expected to fall from a near record 14.1 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 10 million tonnes in the forecast year, and exports are forecast to decline to 5.5 million tonnes from the estimated 7.5 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Sorghum production is forecast to decline after two successive years of big production. Although planted area is expected to shrink, the main driver is that yields are expected at near long-term average levels after the last two exceptionally high yielding seasons.

In the event that the looming El Niño does bring drought conditions this winter/spring period, stored soil moisture levels may be low in the lead up to the forecast year planting period, which could impact planted area and production further than expected, the FAS said.

Sorghum exports also are forecast to decline but this is after an estimated record export program in 2022-23.