ASTANA, KAZAKHSTAN — Wheat production in Kazakhstan is expected to be 16.4 million tonnes for marketing year 2022-23, which would be well above the previous year’s 11.8 million tonnes and the Central Asian country’s best year since 2017-18, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

FAS Post Astana is projecting 10.5 million tonnes of wheat exports in the current marketing year with barley shipments reaching 1 million tonnes on 3.287 million tonnes of production. Increasing exports is challenged by limited rail capacity, outdated infrastructure, underreporting imports from Russia and delayed value-added tax reimbursements.

Higher wheat stocks are expected due to grain export restrictions the government imposed in marketing year 2021-22 and lower-priced wheat imports from Russia that compete with domestic supplies for use in flour milling. 

“On average, Russian wheat imported to Kazakhstan is $10 to $15 per tonne cheaper than local wheat,” FAS Post Astana said. “Kazakh mills imported Russian wheat of the 4th class and blended it with local high-quality wheat to produce compatible quality wheat flour at a lower cost.”

According to local analysts, domestic grain consumption will remain stable and is not expected to increase in the next few years. Wheat consumption is projected at 7 million tonnes in 2022-23, while barley will reach 2.47 million tonnes, of which 2.1 million is used for animal feed.