ISTANBUL, TURKEY — Although a massive earthquake on Feb. 6 in Turkey killed more than 50,000 people and caused more than $100 billion in damage, the bigger threat to the country’s grain production in marketing year 2023-24 is a severe drought, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The report said cumulative rainfall totals from October 2022 to February 2023 fell to their lowest levels in decades at about 30% below the historical average for this period.

“The lack of rain is particularly concerning for both winter wheat and winter barley, most of which are unirrigated,” the USDA said. “In addition, the shortfall in precipitation has also contributed to lower water levels in reservoirs and dams in different parts of the country, which may limit the amount of water available for irrigation later in the year for rice and corn.”

It noted that wheat harvested area is projected to increase by 350,000 hectares in 2023-24, a prediction based on the expectation that relatively stronger domestic wheat prices will prompt farmers to plant more wheat instead of cotton and sunflower. However, because of the dry conditions, wheat output is forecast to remain unchanged at 17.25 million tonnes, the USDA said.

The USDA said Turkish wheat imports are forecast unchanged from 2022-23 at 10 million tonnes, although they could climb higher if drought persists and production declines. Approximately 70% of the wheat Turkey imports is re-exported as flour and pasta. Turkey is the world’s largest flour exporter.

Most of the damage from the earthquake, which measured 7.8 on the Richter scale, occurred in four provinces that produce a relatively small amount of grain, the report said. Those provinces account for 5% of the nation’s wheat production, 5% of corn and 4% of barley, the USDA said.

According to industry sources, 10 small- and medium-sized flour mills were damaged in the earthquake, but the damage was not expected to impact the country’s overall production of flour.