NEW DELHI, INDIA — Although wheat production in India is forecast to increase in the 2023-24 marketing year, the Indian government is unlikely to relax its export ban on wheat and wheat products, at least through the peak harvest/marketing period, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

“Policymakers are fretting over reports predicting a strengthening of the El Niño later in 2023, potentially impacting Indian agricultural production and food supplies,” the USDA said. “In the run up to India’s state and national elections and to combat food inflation, the government will ensure the availability of sufficient wheat supplies.

“It will retract the wheat and wheat products’ export ban only if it is comfortable with a favorable combination of the 2023-24 harvest realization, MSP procurement, and expected market prices.”

The USDA projects wheat production to increase to 108 million tonnes, up from the estimated 100 million in 2022-23 and rivaling the record crop of 109.5 million in 2021-22.

Despite highly competitive prices of Indian wheat, the USDA forecasts 2023-24 wheat exports at only 1 million tonnes, with shipments limited to neighboring and developing countries. India is estimated to ship 5.5 million tonnes during the current marketing year.

Ending stocks are projected to increase slightly to 10.5 million tonnes, up from the estimated 9.2 million tonnes in 2022-23, but still well below the 19.5 million tonnes that were in reserve in 2021-22, according to the USDA.

India is the world’s second largest wheat producer behind China.