BRUSSELS, BELGIUM — COCERAL, in its latest grain crop forecast for the EU-27+UK in 2022, projects a significant decline from its previous forecast in May, dropping from 309.5 million tonnes to 287.9 million tonnes. The projection also would be a 7% decrease from last year’s harvested total of 309.8 million tonnes.

The decline is due primarily to drought that has impacted a number of European countries this summer.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is estimated at 140.5 million tonnes, down from the 143 million tonnes in the previous forecast and from last year’s 143.4 million tonnes. The estimate has particularly deteriorated for Spain and Hungary due to extreme heat and drought. The EU-27+UK 2022 barley production is estimated at 59.8 million tonnes, slightly down from the 60 million tonnes seen in May, but up from 59 million tonnes last year.

The EU-27 2022 corn crop is now seen at only 51.9 million tonnes — far below the previous forecast of 66 million tonnes and down from 70.2 million in 2021 — due to significant downward revisions for a number of countries due to hot and dry weather during pollination, particularly Hungary, Romania, France, Italy and Germany. In contrast, Poland is expected to see another huge crop of more than 7 million tonnes, being the third biggest corn producer in the EU after France and Romania.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is estimated at 20.7 million tonnes, the highest level in the last few years. This compares to 19.5 million tonnes in the previous forecast and 18.4 million tonnes last year.

COCERAL is the European association of trade in cereals, oilseeds, rice, pulses, olive oil, oils and fats, animal feed and agrosupply. It represents the interest of the European collectors, traders, importers, exporters and port silo storekeepers in those market segments.