OTTAWA, ONTARIO, CANADA — Canadian wheat production in the 2022-23 marketing year is forecast to increase 55% over the previous year to 34.6 million tonnes, according to the latest projections from Statistics Canada.

If realized, it would be the third largest wheat crop in Canadian history.

The increase is largely driven by better growing conditions in Western Canada, according to Statistics Canada.

The agency said yields are expected to increase year-on-year by 41% to 51.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area also is expected to increase by 9.4% to 24.9 million acres.

The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 57% to 25.6 million tonnes. This increase is a result of higher anticipated yields (up 40% to 52.7 bushels per acre) and higher harvested area, expected to increase by 12.5% to 17.8 million acres.

Durum wheat yields also are expected to rise (up 101% to 40.6 bushels per acre), contributing to higher expected durum wheat production (up 113% to 6.5 million tonnes).

The country’s other grain crops also are expected to see an increase in output, the agency said.

Canola production is expected to rise by 42% to 19.5 million tonnes in 2022-23, as growing conditions in the Prairies improved considerably relative to 2021, pushing yields higher (up 48% to 40.5 bushels per acre).