NEW DELHI, INDIA — The Indian government on May 4 revised its wheat production forecast lower to 105 million tonnes for the 2022-23 marketing year as a heatwave damaged the crop during crucial final stages of maturation.

Earlier this year, India projected a record crop of 111 million tonnes, which would have been the seventh straight year of record output.

With the smaller crop expected, the government said it is considering restricting wheat exports. Such a move would likely boost already high wheat prices that have soared since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest wheat suppliers.

India had been projected to set a record for wheat exports in the 2021-22 marketing year at nearly 9 million tonnes and perhaps double that amount in the following season, said Piyush Goyal, India’s commerce minister. That level now looks uncertain given the smaller potential yield and need to balance domestic needs for its 1.4 billion people.