BRASILIA, BRAZIL — The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brazil has lowered its 2021-22 marketing year forecast for soybean planted area to 40.4 million hectares and soybean production to 136 million tonnes.

The Jan. 12 USDA Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report noted extreme weather with drought in some regions and excessive rain in others has dampened prospects for a record crop after an optimistic sowing season in which most soybeans were planted on time.

As a result, the post lowered the 2021-22 soybean export forecast to 88 million tonnes. Based on strong performance in the 2020-21 season, the soybean export estimate was revised up to 88.5 million tonnes, a new record.

For the 2021-22 marketing year, the post adjusted down slightly the soybean processing forecast to 46 million tonnes and maintained the 2020-21 crush estimate at 46.5 million tonnes of soybeans.

The crush forecast and estimate are driven by domestic soy oil demand, which likely will decline when the biofuel mandate is reduced to 10% in 2022. With China’s strong appetite for Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian soy stocks will hover at less than 5% of the domestic supply.