WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture in its first survey-based forecasts for corn and soybeans of the year projected corn production up 4% from 2020 and soybean production up 5%, but both forecasts were below the average of pre-report trade expectations.

The USDA forecast 2021 corn production at 14,750,368,000 bushels, up 4% from 14,182,479,000 bushels in 2020 and the second highest on record after the 2016 crop, if realized. The average of trade predictions was 15.004 billion bushels. 

The 2021 corn forecast was based on a harvested area projection at 84.495 million acres, unchanged from the USDA’s June forecast but up 2% from 2020, and an average yield based on Aug. 1 conditions of 174.6 bushels per acre, up 1.5% from 172 bushels per acre in 2020 and the third highest on record. 

The USDA forecast 2021 soybean production at 4,338,853,000 bushels, up 5% from 4,135,477,000 bushels in 2020 and the third highest on record if realized. The average of trade expectations was 4.375 billion bushels.

The 2021 soybean production forecast was based on harvested area projected at 86.72 million acres, unchanged from the June outlook but up 5% from 2020, and an average yield of 50 bushels per acre, down slightly from 50.2 bushels per acre in 2020. 

Record high yields for both corn and soybeans were forecast for several eastern Corn Belt states.

Corn and soybean futures markets moved higher after the 11:00 Central Time reports as USDA estimates were below the average of trade expectations.