OTTAWA, ONTARIO, CANADA — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in its preliminary outlook for 2021-22 Canadian supply and demand contained in its Jan. 25 Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops report forecast smaller wheat and oats crops in 2021 but a larger canola crop.

AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat production in 2021 at 33.651 million tonnes, down 1.536 million tonnes, or 4%, from 35.187 million tonnes in 2020. The decrease from 2020 primarily was attributed to a return to trendline yields from record yields realized in 2020. The harvested area for all-wheat was projected at 10.019 million hectares, up only 1,000 hectares from 1.018 million hectares in 2020. The average all-wheat yield in 2021 was forecast at 3.36 tonnes per hectare compared with a record 3.51 tonnes per hectare in 2020 and 3.35 tonnes per hectare in 2019.

“Canadian area seeded is forecast to remain relatively stable, as more acres are seeded to durum because of attractive pricing,” AAFC said.

Production of wheat except durum was projected at 27.353 million tonnes, down 1.263 million tonnes, or 4%, from 28.616 million tonnes in 2020. Area planted to wheat except durum was projected at 7.902 million hectares, up 10,000 hectares from 7.892 million hectares in 2020, and harvested area in 2021 was forecast at 7.65 million hectares, down 73,000 hectares from 7.723 million hectares in 2020. The average 2021 yield for wheat except durum was forecast at 3.6 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.71 tonnes per hectare in 2020.

AAFC projected durum production in 2021 at 6.298 million tonnes, down 273,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 6.571 million tonnes in 2020. The durum planted area was forecast at 2.43 million hectares, up 128,000 hectares, or 6%, from 2020. Harvested area was projected at 2.369 million hectares, up 74,000 hectares from 2020. The average durum yield was projected at 2.66 tonnes per hectare, down from 2.86 tonnes per hectare in 2020.

AAFC projected 2021 oat production at 3.852 million tonnes, down 724,000 tonnes, or 16%, from 4.576 million tonnes in 2020. Area seeded to oats was forecast at 1.379 million hectares, down 175,000 hectares, or 11%, from 1.554 million hectares in 2020. Harvested area was projected at 1.114 million hectares, down 131,000 hectares, or 11%, from 1.245 million hectares in 2020. Average yield was projected at 3.48 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.62 tonnes per hectare in 2020.

AAFC said oat plantings were projected to be down from 2020 because of strong competition for acreage from oilseeds and despite good oat prices.

AAFC projected 2021 Canadian canola production at 19.9 million tonnes, up 1.18 million tonnes, or 6%, from 18.72 million tonnes in 2020. If the forecast is realized, the 2021 Canadian crop would be the third largest ever.

Canola plantings this spring were forecast at 8.65 million hectares, up 240,000 hectares, or 3%, from 8.41 million hectares in 2020. AAFC said farmers were expected to expand canola area mostly at the expense of coarse grains.

Harvested area of canola was projected at 8.598 million hectares, up 278,000 hectares, or 3%, from 8.32 million hectares in 2020. Average yield was projected at 2.31 tonnes per hectare compared with 2.25 tonnes per hectare in 2020.