WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture on Aug 12 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, at 925 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from the July projection and down 119 million bushels, or 11%, from 1.044 billion bushels in 2020. If the projection is realized, the 2021 carryover would be the smallest in six years.

The USDA projected the 2020-21 wheat supply at 3.011 billion bushels, up 4 million bushels from July as all-wheat production was raised 14 million bushels, to 1.838 billion bushels, and imports were lowered 10 million bushels, to 130 million bushels.

Wheat disappearance in 2020-21 was forecast at 2.086 billion bushels, up 21 million bushels from July and up 25 million bushels from 2019-20.

Food use of wheat in 2020-21 was projected at 960 million bushels, down 4 million from the July outlook and down 2 million bushels from 962 million in 2019-20. The USDA said that the reduction in the food use forecast from July was made considering “food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19.”

Other 2020-21 domestic use forecasts were unchanged at 61 million bushels for seed and 90 million bushels for feed and residual.

US wheat exports in 2020-21 were projected at 975 million bushels, up 25 million from the July outlook and up 10 million bushels from 2019-20. The USDA pointed to lower production in several key competitors, most notably, the European Union.

The USDA made several adjustments to its 2020-21 supply-and-demand forecasts by wheat class.

The hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 390 million bushels, down 33 million bushels from July and down 25% from 521 million bushels in 2020. Production was lowered 15 million bushels, to 695 million. Domestic use in 2020-21 was lowered 2 million bushels, to 426 million. Hard red winter wheat exports were forecast at 405 million bushels, up 20 million from the July projection and up 29 million bushels from 376 million in 2019-20.

The USDA forecast the hard red spring wheat carryover at 293 million bushels, up 23 million bushels from the July projection and up 13 million bushels from 280 million bushels in 2020. Hard red spring wheat production was raised 28 million bushels from July to 530 million, while forecast imports were lowered 10 million bushels, to 60 million. Domestic use in 2020-21 was forecast at 307 million bushels, down 5 million from July. Hard red spring wheat exports were forecast unchanged at 270 million bushels.

The soft red winter wheat 2021 carryover was projected at 103 million bushels, unchanged from the July forecast and down just 2 million bushels from 2020. Production was lowered 3 million bushels from July, to 277 million bushels, but domestic use was lowered by an equal amount to 199 million bushels. Soft red winter wheat exports in 2020-21 were forecast at 90 million bushels, unchanged.

The USDA forecast the white wheat carryover for 2021 at 104 million bushels, down 1 million bushels from July because of a 1-million-bushel reduction in the production estimate to 274 million bushels.

The USDA forecast the carryover of durum on June 1, 2021, at 36 million bushels, down 4 million from the July projection and down 7 million bushels from 43 million bushels in 2020.  The durum production forecast was raised 6 million bushels from July, to 62 million bushels. Domestic use in 2020-21 was projected at 89 million bushels, up 6 million from July and up 24 million bushels from 2019-20. Durum exports in 2021-22 were forecast at 30 million bushels, up 5 million from the July outlook but down 12 million bushels from 2019-20.