TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA — Canada’s wheat and canola 2019-20 production is estimated to increase even though a decrease in exports of the two commodities are expected, according to the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) outlook field crops report. 

The report said yield estimates for 2019-20 do not account for the cool wet weather in September in Western Canada, which has delayed harvest and reduced crop quality.

The AAFC raised Canada’s 2019-20 wheat production by 4% from 2018‑19 to 27.5 million tonnes, as the 7.5% higher seeded area is partly offset by higher abandonment for winter wheat and lower average yields. Supply is estimated to increase by only 1.7%, as lower carry‑in stocks partly offset the increase in production. Exports are forecast to fall by 3% to 19.2 million tonnes, as more competition is expected from other exporters because of higher production. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to increase by 10% to 5 million tonnes.

The 2019‑20 Canadian canola production is estimated at 19.4 million tonnes, 5% below last year but slightly above the five-year average, as the 8% shift in crop area out of canola partly was offset by an expected 0.07-tonnes-per-hectare increase in yields.

According to the AAFC, total supplies of canola are forecast at a record 23.3 million tonnes, a rise of 0.35 million tonnes from last year’s previous record, as the rise in carry‑in stocks and stable imports more than offsets the drop in output.

The AAFC forecasts canola exports at 9.2 million tonnes, versus the five-year average of 10.1 million tonnes under competition from oilseed supplies and reduced demand worldwide. According to the report, adverse growing conditions in Europe and Australia will offer support to Canadian exports, which remain constrained by the decline in Chinese buying.

The 2019‑20 Canadian corn supply is forecast to decrease from 2018‑19 largely due to sharply lower imports, as well as lower carry‑in stocks. Corn production is estimated by Statistics Canada’s (STC) to increase by 2% to 14.1 million tonnes due to increased harvested area more than offsetting lower yields.

In Eastern Canada, the corn and soybean harvest is not expected to be complete until early November. However, due to higher supply and decreased exports, total carry out stocks are expected to rise to 17.3 million tonnes, which is 15% higher than the previous five-year average.

The report estimated Canada’s 2019-20 soybean production at 6.49 million tonnes, down from the 7.27 million tonnes grown in 2018‑19 and the record 7.72 million tonnes grown in 2017‑18, mostly due to the 10% decline in planted area and slightly lower yields.

“World grain prices are expected to continue to be pressured by abundant supplies at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar,” the report said.